Commodity Price Swings Are Testing FMCG Production Plans

Raw material prices are moving faster than the ability of FMCG manufacturers to reset their production plans. Cocoa futures hit a record $12,565 per tonne in December 2024, according to BLS cocoa price data, before falling to around $4,000 in early 2026, as reported by Food Business News. Meanwhile, sugar prices in India rose by nearly 40% in two months, according to India sugar price data. Together, these movements show how quickly input economics can change.

The same pattern is playing out across other FMCG inputs. Coffee prices hit record highs in 2025 before easing in 2026, with Nestlé indicating that lower bean costs will be considered when setting future prices. Nestlé’s comments on coffee pricing highlight the lag between commodity movements and commercial decisions. Meanwhile, Malaysian palm oil futures were up by around 15% by August, while fuel shortages disrupted harvesting in Southeast Asia, adding further pressure to an already volatile input market. Packaging costs are also under pressure, with Reuters noting that Coca-Cola is sourcing larger cans from Southeast Asia amid aluminium and PET shortages in India.

For FMCG manufacturers, the challenge extends beyond absorbing higher or lower input costs – to adjusting production plans quickly enough when prices move in opposite directions. Three areas are becoming particularly important:

• Planning that reacts when commodity assumptions change.

  Mondelēz entered 2026 with most of its cocoa exposure hedged at relatively high prices, limiting its ability to benefit immediately from the subsequent fall. The firm’s exposure in this respect shows why production plans need to be revisited as cost assumptions shift. The lag between input costs and shelf prices can create a response window, but only if manufacturers identify changes early.

• Scenario modelling across multiple inputs.
  Falling prices in one commodity do not remove pressure elsewhere. Manufacturers can enjoy lower cocoa or coffee costs, while dealing with higher sugar, palm oil, packaging or energy expenses. Scenario modelling can help teams test these combinations against volume, plant load, inventory and production constraints, rather than assessing each commodity in isolation.
• Reformulation and packaging changes tested against production constraints. Manufacturers are already adapting products and packaging in response to input costs. Mondelēz is developing products that use less chocolate, while Lindt plans to adjust packaging to focus on smaller, more affordable products following higher cocoa prices. These changes can have knock-on effects for recipes, lines, quality and scheduling, making it important to understand their operational impact before committing.

Raw material volatility is becoming an ongoing production planning challenge, prompting firms to invest in industrial agility to strengthen resilience and competitiveness. Manufacturers need to connect changing market signals with production decisions to enable them to revise plans as costs, availability and product economics shift. For a benchmark of the software capabilities relevant to these planning challenges, see the Verdantix Smart Innovators: Production Optimization Software For Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) Manufacturing.