Between A Rock And A Hard Place: Bab al-Mandab Joins Strait Of Hormuz As A Supply Chain Chokepoint

For much of 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has dominated supply chain risk agendas. Since Iran restricted the Strait for most commercial shipping in late February, traffic has fallen from around 100 vessels a day to just five, one of the sharpest maritime shipping collapses in decades.

Now the Gulf’s back-up route is under threat too. Since the Strait closed, Saudi Arabia has diverted crude oil through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. From there, it exits through the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The issue, however, is that Houthi forces now hold parts of the coastline overlooking the Bab al-Mandab Strait and have attacked Saudi tankers there since July, impacting both oil and non-oil commercial shipments. Earlier in October, that conflict escalated after the Houthis carried out missile and drone strikes on Saudi airports, killing more than a dozen people, as well as attacking other critical infrastructure throughout Saudi Arabia. With both straits now contested and deepening geopolitical cracks in the region, firms globally must now prepare for longer shipment times, supply chain vendor changes and potentially higher oil prices.

Shipping lanes have become the new bargaining chip, escalating supply chain risks

Considering the state of constant attacks and grey zone activity in the Middle East, geopolitical fragmentation and decoupling will likely worsen over the next three months. The Houthis want an end to Saudi control and backing of the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), Yemen’s recognized government, which is the main catalyst in worsening Yemen’s civil war. The Houthis’ agenda likely also seeks to cut a share of Yemen’s oil revenues and recognition as its de facto authority, in exchange for halting attacks on Saudi Arabia’s critical infrastructure and shipping. Saudi Arabia, in turn, is determined to stop an Iran-backed force from controlling the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

Businesses around the world must prepare to feel further disruptions from the Middle East. Indeed, the costs are already visible: Red Sea war risk premiums have risen from 0.05% to as much as 1%, a roughly 900% increase. Rerouting options such as the Cape of Good Hope add up to two weeks per voyage. Firms will soon see supply chain issues piling up as they reach these dead ends. To mitigate these risks, decision-makers should now:

• Stress-test continuity plans against a dual closure. Map which operations depend on Gulf exports, and model a 90-day scenario in which both straits are disrupted.
• Scan and qualify alternative suppliers. For critical third parties in Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the wider Gulf, identify back-ups whose logistics avoid both chokepoints and start due diligence now.
• Revisit travel risk and duty of care. With major Saudi airports targeted and airlines suspending services, plan for critical staff being unable to leave, including overland evacuation routes and shelter-in-place protocols.
• Move to continuous, automated monitoring. Risk intelligence platforms such as Seerist link geopolitical alerts to supplier and asset locations in real time. They help firms monitor current and alternative vendors, automate due diligence and move away from affected suppliers quickly.

A closure of both straits is now a realistic scenario. The firms best placed to weather this disruption will not be those that predict the conflict’s outcome, but those that map their exposure from this moment onwards. For a comparison of leading risk intelligence providers, see the Verdantix Green Quadrant: Risk Intelligence Software (2026).