Risk Management In 2026: Key Predictions For An Uncertain Year

Just one month into 2026, renewed geopolitical tensions – including developments in Iran and Greenland – are already testing risk strategies that organizations spent months preparing. As uncertainty continues to shape the risk landscape, foresight and preparedness are becoming essential capabilities for risk leaders navigating the year ahead. In 2025, risk managers faced a volatile mix of technological, regulatory and geopolitical pressures. In 2026, we predict risk management teams will see:

• The demand for geopolitical risk insights surge.
  Only a handful of the 325 respondents to the 2025 Verdantix corporate survey considered geopolitical threats to be the most significant driver of increased spending on risk management for the next 12 months (see Verdantix Global Corporate Survey 2025: Risk Management Budgets, Priorities And Tech Preferences). In 2026, however, as geopolitical headwinds become increasingly unpredictable and frequent, firms will seek context-rich geopolitical data and intelligence to inform resilience metrics.
• Supplier and network risks expand into nth parties.
  Businesses with multi-tier partner networks will become exposed to risks beyond their third parties. Cyber, financial, reputational and operational dependencies will require firms to extend their due diligence to include nth-party relationship analysis and plan beyond third-party risks.
• Lower-than-expected ROI on AI crumble the global economy.
  AI-driven gains will materialize much slower than investors expected and technology firms promised. This will cause lending standards to tighten, creating increased pressure on global debt levels with limited governmental support.
• Cyber attack methods diversify, driving up cyber security investment.
  AI-driven cyber attacks will increase business risk as defensive capabilities lag. The timing, strategy and target of these attacks will be autonomously AI-driven, increasing the complexity and volume of cyber threats. As these risks penetrate third- and nth-party networks, organizations will be forced to prioritize workforce upskilling and regular security testing.
• Climate change pose an existential threat to business operations.
  Businesses will increasingly consider climate factors when deciding where to set up operations. Similarly, firms currently operating in areas with adverse weather conditions will relocate critical business operation sites. As wildfires, droughts and extreme rainfall continue to threaten physical assets, the insurance industry will also come under strain, and coverage will become limited.

As complexity and uncertainty continue to define the risk environment, risk leaders must reassess their exposures and prepare for the impacts of these emerging trends to ensure business resilience, continuity and profitability. To explore an extended view of our research and the remaining five predictions shaping risk management in 2026 and beyond, read the full report here: Market Insight: 10 Predictions For Risk Management In 2026 And Beyond.