Strategic Focus: Transition Risk Primer
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Executive Summary
Transition risks – that is, risks that emerge from the global transition to a low-carbon economy – are already having material impacts on corporates. However, many firms lack the skills and knowledge to assess and address them. This report provides an overview of these threats and opportunities – specifically, changing markets, new technologies, lawsuits, climate policies and reputational damage – as well as the impacts of a disorderly transition. We also discuss the varied ways these risks materialize, for example, via carbon prices, consumer behaviour and stranded assets. Finally, we outline strategies to plan for and mitigate these risks, such as transition planning based on scenario analysis and partnering with external stakeholders.
Table of contents
Transition risk is a current and worsening threatTransition risks already affect firms
Future risks will stem from disorderly, delayed or disjointed transitions to a low-carbon economy
Firms should also explore upsides to the transition
Taking action on transition risk
Scenario analysis provides an informed view of transition risk
Materiality assessments rely on monetizing transition impacts
Transition plans support climate action
Climate-specific indicators track progress and identify weaknesses
Partnerships are critical to a successful transition
Table of figures
Figure 1. A disorderly transition results in multiple direct and indirect disruptionsFigure 2. Transition plans are key for outlining actions to reduce risk
Figure 3. Sources of transition risk exposure determine the need for external collaboration
Organisations mentioned
Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), Airbus, Arla, Ball Corporation, BloombergNEF, CDP, Chiquita, Climate Interactive, European Central Bank, FW, Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, IBM, ING Group, Investor Group on Climate Change (IGCC), KPMG, McKinsey & Company, NextEra Energy, Oliver Wyman, OS-Climate, PwC, PZU, Risilience, riskthinking.AI, S&P Global, Shell, Taskforce on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures (TNFD), Tesla, Tetra Pak, The Hague District Court, Toyota, Weyerhaeuser, World Economic Forum, WSPAbout the authors
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