Strategic Focus: The Future Of Carbon Removal Technology To 2040

Published 6 February 2025 by Connor Taylor & Ryan Skinner &

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Executive Summary

Novel carbon dioxide removal (n-CDR) has developed into a distinct climate technology market since its emergence in the early 2020s, witnessing significant amounts of investment, public policy attention, and support from leading corporate organizations. Based on projections from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world will need multi-gigaton carbon removal capacity by 2050. Can the nascent n-CDR industry scale in time to be a significant climate mitigation lever – or will it prove to be a climate dead-end? Verdantix analysis of technological and market trends concludes that, of three scenarios, in only one does n-CDR hit the scale that the IPCC has asked of it – and that scenario remains unlikely. More likely, n-CDR will persist as a growing, but still marginal, part of the climate mitigation picture.

Table of contents

Paris-aligned scenarios require near-gigaton capacity for n-CDR by 2040
The n-CDR industry needs hundreds of billions of capital investment to scale at pace 
The n-CDR industry is sustained at present by voluntary demand
Public policy could stimulate massive direct demand for n-CDR
n-CDR will have a limited impact on global warming by 2040
Three scenarios outline n-CDR’s development to gigaton-scale capacity
The n-CDR market will experience growing pains before 2030

Table of figures

Figure 1. n-CDR’s value is driven by permanence concerns and scalability prospects
Figure 2. Carbon pricing mechanisms are an untapped demand driver for n-CDR
Figure 3. Scaling n-CDR to gigaton-levels will require hundreds of billions of capital investment

About the authors

Connor Taylor

Senior Analyst
Connor is a Senior Analyst in the Verdantix Net Zero & Climate Risk practice. His current research agenda focuses on carbon management software, climate change consulting services, and the voluntary carbon markets. Connor joined Verdantix in 2021, with prior experience in EHS technology sales and development. He holds a BA from the University of Cambridge in Anglo-Saxon, Norse and Celtic.

Ryan Skinner

Research Director, Net Zero & Climate Risk
Ryan is the Research Director for the Verdantix Net Zero & Climate Risk practice. He guides the research team to develop compelling research at the intersection of net zero strategies, carbon management, climate risk and technology. Prior to joining Verdantix, Ryan was a principal analyst at Forrester Research, where he initiated the research into ESG data and analytics offerings. He also has extensive experience of helping software companies with their messaging, positioning, market and technology strategies. Ryan studied at Duke University, the University of Manchester and the University of Oslo, and speaks Norwegian fluently.

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