Strategic Focus: The Future Of Carbon Removal Technology To 2040
06 Feb, 2025
Executive Summary
Novel carbon dioxide removal (n-CDR) has developed into a distinct climate technology market since its emergence in the early 2020s, witnessing significant amounts of investment, public policy attention, and support from leading corporate organizations. Based on projections from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the world will need multi-gigaton carbon removal capacity by 2050. Can the nascent n-CDR industry scale in time to be a significant climate mitigation lever – or will it prove to be a climate dead-end? Verdantix analysis of technological and market trends concludes that, of three scenarios, in only one does n-CDR hit the scale that the IPCC has asked of it – and that scenario remains unlikely. More likely, n-CDR will persist as a growing, but still marginal, part of the climate mitigation picture.
Paris-aligned scenarios require near-gigaton capacity for n-CDR by 2040
The n-CDR industry needs hundreds of billions of capital investment to scale at pace
The n-CDR industry is sustained at present by voluntary demand
Public policy could stimulate massive direct demand for n-CDR
n-CDR will have a limited impact on global warming by 2040
Three scenarios outline n-CDR’s development to gigaton-scale capacity
The n-CDR market will experience growing pains before 2030
The n-CDR industry needs hundreds of billions of capital investment to scale at pace
The n-CDR industry is sustained at present by voluntary demand
Public policy could stimulate massive direct demand for n-CDR
n-CDR will have a limited impact on global warming by 2040
Three scenarios outline n-CDR’s development to gigaton-scale capacity
The n-CDR market will experience growing pains before 2030
Figure 1. n-CDR’s value is driven by permanence concerns and scalability prospects
Figure 2. Carbon pricing mechanisms are an untapped demand driver for n-CDR
Figure 3. Scaling n-CDR to gigaton-levels will require hundreds of billions of capital investment
Figure 2. Carbon pricing mechanisms are an untapped demand driver for n-CDR
Figure 3. Scaling n-CDR to gigaton-levels will require hundreds of billions of capital investment
About the Authors
Connor Taylor
Senior Analyst
Connor is a Senior Analyst at Verdantix. He focuses on delivering research to help senior executives navigate decarbonization decision-making and build effective strategies to…
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Ryan Skinner
Research Director
Ryan is a Research Director at Verdantix, where he leads a team of analysts delivering research, data and advisory services that help clients navigate the fast-evolving landsc…
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