Best Practices: Climate Scenarios For Risk Management
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Executive Summary
Climate scenarios help firms assess risk and improve resilience to climate change. They are particularly valuable for managing the uncertainty surrounding the specifics of future climate change and its impacts. However, the scenarios that firms most commonly use are not perfect. To better support business needs, organizations should consider a variety of models and data sources. Scenarios should incorporate multiple sources of uncertainty – such as emissions pathways, socioeconomic conditions, climate system response, feedbacks and tipping points, and interannual variability – at local and global scales over the short, medium and long term.
Table of contents
Summary for decision-makersClimate scenarios are a key piece of risk management
Use and misuse of climate scenarios for risk management
Scientific perspective: the good, the bad and the ugly of current approaches
Business perspective: available climate scenarios do not address all needs
Alternative approaches to climate scenarios add value
Scenarios should support business needs
Five recommendations for using climate scenarios in risk management
Table of figures
Figure 1. Strengths and weaknesses of stochastic and deterministic modelsFigure 2. Examples of alternative climate scenarios
Figure 3. Questions to consider when evaluating and selecting climate scenarios
Organisations mentioned
CLIMsystems, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Copperleaf, CoreLogic, European Central Bank (ECB), Fathom, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Moody’s, Netherlands Delta Commission, Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), Risilience, Southern California Edison (SCE), The Climate Risk Group, UK Government, UN Environment Programme Finance Initiative, University of Exeter, US Bureau of Reclamation, US Department of Defense, USS (Universities Superannuation Scheme)About the authors
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