Make Renewables Great Again? What The Midterm Results Could Mean For Green Energy Policy In The US

The last two years have been among the most turbulent periods for the US clean energy sector in recent memory. Renewable energy developers have navigated a succession of challenges: tariffs that have disrupted clean technology supply chains, the rollback of key Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), worsening grid congestion driven by surging electricity demand and an increasingly volatile policy landscape for offshore wind.

Against this backdrop, the midterm elections will inevitably be scrutinized for clues about the future direction of US energy policy. While the results are unlikely to fundamentally reshape the trajectory of federal clean energy policy before the next presidential election, they do provide insight into the priorities and concerns voters want policymakers to address.

For renewable energy developers, utilities and corporate energy buyers, a few key areas of the energy transition could receive heightened political attention over the next two years.

Energy affordability is one of voters’ defining concerns

Throughout the campaign, cost-of-living concerns consistently ranked among voters' top priorities, with energy prices featuring prominently in debates and campaign messaging across multiple states. As a result, clean energy policies that can lower household bills, improve grid reliability or reduce exposure to fuel price volatility are likely to gain more political support than initiatives justified primarily on climate grounds.

Data centres have become a new political flashpoint

Data centres emerged as a major election issue, with candidates increasingly linking AI-driven electricity demand to higher consumer energy bills and local grid constraints. Policymakers are already exploring measures that better align new data centre demand with renewable generation, such as the 'US Electron Accelerator' proposal which outlines policies designed to better match data centre electricity consumption with new clean energy generation. Renewable energy developers and large corporate buyers should monitor policies that tie data centre growth to new clean energy procurement and grid investment.

Offshore wind could benefit from reduced regulatory uncertainty

The offshore wind sector has been one of the most policy-sensitive segments of the US energy transition, with many developers spending recent years contending with project delays and permitting. While the election is unlikely to unlock major new legislation, stronger Democratic representation may help limit further disruption and reduce uncertainty for projects already in development. For example, Ørsted's share price rose following the results, suggesting investors viewed the outcome as modestly positive for the sector's regulatory outlook.

The future of IRA incentives will remain a key battleground

The OBBBA reshaped the economics of many clean energy projects by rolling back more than $500 billion in IRA-related incentives. While Democrats are likely to continue pushing for support measures, meaningful changes are more likely to focus on grid reliability, domestic manufacturing and energy affordability than a wholesale restoration of the IRA framework.

State-level action could become an increasingly important source of policy momentum

While federal policymaking remains constrained, changes in governance across several historically Republican-leaning states could create new opportunities for clean energy deployment, permitting reform and grid modernization. For developers and corporate energy buyers, state legislatures and public utility commissions may become an increasingly important source of policy support over the next two years.

The midterms are unlikely to trigger a dramatic shift in US clean energy policy. However, they do provide a clear indication of where future policy debates are likely to focus: energy affordability, data-centre-driven electricity demand and grid reliability. Developers and corporate energy buyers that can align clean energy investments with these priorities will be best positioned to navigate the next phase of the US energy transition.

For more Verdantix takeaways from the midterm elections, check out our coverage of the results’ impact on the AI SaaS market and the manufacturing sector.

To find out more about the US energy transition landscape, read Market Insight: US Energy Transition Investment Trends.